Long-term outlook

It is assumed that the years 2030-2035 will be a period during which a deep review of development scenarios with respect to the climate will be required, depending on the intensity of climate change.

If the ultimate increase in temperature estimated for this time frame exceeds 2°C, then we are forecasting a further tightening of environmental standards towards a substantial reduction in CO2 emissions and extremely stringent emission standards for nitrogen and sulfur oxides as well as mercury and dusts. The tightening of climate policy will result in reduced supply of CO2 emission allowances under the ETS, which will lead to a significant increase of the prices of these allowances.

It is forecasted that by 2050 the biggest challenge will be to ensure the stability of electricity supply to support the country’s economic growth and growing prosperity, without at the same time neglecting to accelerate energy transition through capital expenditures on low-emission technologies. The energy sector is currently the largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions and, irrespective of climate change scenarios and the increase in temperature, it is extremely important to reduce emissions in this sector.

In the long term, there will also be a significant transformation of the national energy mix by increasing the share of renewable energy sources, and potentially the development of nuclear energy, accompanied by a further drop in the share of coal sources. Considering the increasing cost of coal-based energy generation resulting from climate policy, its importance will be marginalized.

Strategic decisions with respect to environment and climate protection made at the European Union level, including in particular the European Union 2050 climate strategy, will determine the development of the domestic energy sector in the long term. The European Green Deal proposes an action plan enabling the transition to a zero-emission economy through a more efficient use of resources by moving to a clean circular economy, halting climate change, preventing the loss of biodiversity and reducing the pollution level.

For more on this, see the tab Strategy/Environmental conditions determining the choice of strategy in the long, medium and short term.

Search results: