Medium-termoutlook

In the medium term, we assume a slight decrease in the electricity demand growth rate, resulting from a decrease in the energy intensity of the Polish economy, stabilization of the rate of economic development and improvements in energy efficiency. Electricity generation will shift towards dispersed solutions, including prosumer installations.

We expect to see a continued increase in consumer awareness in connection with digitization processes, access to prosumer installations and smart grid solutions. An ever broader range of services based on the smart grid infrastructure, in particular smart meters, is also expected. The role of the demand side management services (DSR/DSM) will also increase, which will largely result from the development of smart technologies and market mechanisms, but also social responsibility (customers will be ready to accept limitations in the supply of electricity if, as a result, this reduces both the economic and environmental cost of electricity supply).

 

Due to the rapid growth of prosumer installations, there will be a need to further develop transmission systems and distribution grids in order to adapt them to greater load variability as well as to support bidirectional flows.


In terms of electricity generation, the rapid development of renewable energy sources is forecasted to continue. A further decrease in the costs of installing renewable energy sources (primarily photovoltaic ones) and electricity storage facilities will be of significant importance, along with the continuous technological development. Regulations at the EU level will further support the development of renewable energy sources and at the same time impose increasingly higher costs and restrictions on conventional energy, making it, gradually, permanently unprofitable.

By 2030, more unprofitable coal-fired units will be shut down. The end of support from the capacity market for many generating units after 2025 will play a major role. However, there is an opportunity for large modern conventional power generation units, the main role of which will be to stabilize the national power system. However, it is assumed that their operation will depend directly on the state of the climate and the environment at the end of the third decade of the century. The expansion of flexible gas-fired units is also taken into account. As a result, it is forecasted that the share of coal in the national energy mix will decline, which will be a natural consequence of the increase in the capacity of low- and zero-emission sources, including gas-fired sources.

For more on this, see the tab Strategy/Environmental conditions determining the choice of strategy in the long, medium and short term.

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