Regulatory assumptions

Short-term outlook

In the area of regulation, these are the main developments we foresee in the short term:

  1. At the EU level, regulatory changes related to the European Green Deal will be underway. Initially, initiatives related to the Climate Law, a fair transformation mechanism and analysis of the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 will be pursued. The EC, certain Member States and groups in the European Parliament are demanding an increase in the CO2 reduction target for 2030 to 50-55%, which indicates a deepening trend in the decarbonization of the energy sector.
  2. Implementation of regulations as part of the Clean Energy for All Europeans package. The implementation of regulations and directives under the package will be carried out with the support of EU institutions, and selected elements of the package will be reviewed by these institutions (for instance, in June 2020, the European Commission is scheduled to publish material summarizing the objectives of Member States under the National Energy and Climate Plans).
  3. At the national level, it may be expected that provisions implementing the Renewable Energy Directive, the Energy Efficiency Directive, the Directive and the Regulation on the Common Energy Market and the ETS Directive into the Polish legal order will be enacted. The Renewable Energy Act, the Energy Efficiency Act, the Energy Law and the Capacity Market Act (implementation of the 550 limit) will be amended.
  4. Work is underway on amendments to the Energy Law, including on the implementation of smart metering and the principles of operation of Distribution System Operators.
  5. In the area of renewable energy sources, besides amendments to the RES Act, legislative work on the Offshore Wind Energy Promotion Act and is expected to be completed along with the issue of a regulation setting the RES obligation level for 2021.
  6. Work on the European Union’s budget for 2021-2027 (Multiannual Financial Framework). The EU budget for 2021-2027 includes mechanisms directly (Just Transition Fund) and indirectly (including cohesion policy or regional development policy) related to the energy sector. At the national level, it will also be necessary to prepare the whole system for spending EU funds, including by preparing and agreeing new Operational Programs with the European Commission.
  7. In 2020, an arrangement with the European Commission concerning the National Plan for Energy and Climate for 2021-2030 may be expected, as well as further work and approval by the Government of Poland’s draft Energy Policy until 2040. The contents of these two documents will establish a strategic framework for the energy sector in the medium and long term.

Medium- and long-term outlook

We assume that EU regulations will be oriented towards continuing the decarbonization process resulting from the arrangements related to the reform of the EU ETS system, the long-term strategy until 2050 and the Paris Agreement. The European Union’s regulatory activities are part of global trends in the energy sector, which include:

  • counteracting climate change, in particular by reducing greenhouse gas emissions,
  • development of renewable energy technologies, including new fuels for transport,
  • development of energy storage,
  • digitization of the economy, including the development of a market associated with smart technologies,
  • reduction in the share of conventional fuels,
  • development of distributed prosumer energy,
  • improved energy efficiency.

In the medium to long term, the European Union’s climate and energy policy will focus on achieving the climate neutrality target by 2050 at the EU level. Moreover, work will continue on the integration of power systems within the community, the establishment of a common energy market and the diversification of sources of electricity generation and supply.

As part of the Clean Energy for All Europeans package of regulations, the EU has undertaken to achieve certain targets, including in respect of reducing CO2 emissions, increasing the share of renewable sources and increasing energy efficiency by 2030. Member States are currently at the stage of implementing the package.

In December 2019, the European Commission published the European Green Deal – a roadmap for EU countries to achieve climate neutrality. The pursuit of the target is associated with the need to adopt a new legal framework and create additional mechanisms (including financial ones) to enable transformation. It should be pointed out, however, that Poland was the only EU country to reserve during the EU summit in December 2019 its inability to attain the neutrality target by 2050 in the current circumstances. Relevant EU institutions are scheduled to return to the dialogue with Poland in June 2020. According to its communication, the European Commission plans to include the following elements in the European Green Deal:

  • adopting regulations directly related to the pursuit of the climate neutrality target – known as the Climate Law,
  • introduction of a funded mechanism to support just transition,
  • analysis of the greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2030,
  • revision of the Energy Taxation Directive,
  • introduction of the CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) for selected sectors,
  • assessment of National Energy and Climate Plans.

In the medium and long term, national regulations will largely result from EU regulations. Accordingly, the introduction of mechanisms aimed at the evolution of the economy and the energy sector toward decarbonization and the construction of the internal energy market in the EU may be expected.

Search results: